#2748 von lupus2000 08.03.07 12:35:49 Beitrag Nr.: 28.181.461 Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | Antwort schreiben | MORPHOSYS AG O.N.
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| Auszüge aus Equinet-Analyse vom 5.3.:
We raise our share price target from EUR 65 to EUR 75. [...] Model update: We calculate with 4.6 (up from 3) partnered antibodies that will ultimately reach the market, which is significantly below MOR’s guidance. We continue not to include any NPV of MOR’s proprietary programs. Despite this rather cautious approach we see a fair value of EUR 75. [...] Morphosys should be seen as a diversified Biotech without any cash-burn. Nonetheless, Morphosys has the same growth and margin profile like other biopharmaceutical drug developers. More than 40 Morphosys antibodies are in development programs with the who-is-who of the pharmaceutical industry. [...] Guidance 2007: Morphosys is projecting total revenues of EUR 60 to 65m, and profit from operations of EUR 7 to 10m for 2007. Of total group revenues, the Therapeutic Antibodies segment will provide approximately two thirds of group revenues, the AbD segment one third. The outlook is pretty much in-line with our old forecasts (sales of EUR 60m and EBIT of EUR 10.3m). However, as Morphosys is known for being pretty conservative, we feel comfortable that the company will reach at least the upper end of the range. We have updated our model with regard to the additional comments made during the conference. For details, please refer to the next section. [...] Main assumptions by year end 2007: 3 antibodies in clinical trials (25% success probability) 17 antibodies in pre-clinical programs (12.5% success probability) 35 antibodies in research stage (5% success probability) Peak sales per antibody: EUR 500m Milestones per antibody: 12m Royalties per antibody: 5% |
xxxxxxxxxxxx Danke Lupus, sehr interessant. Equinet heraufstufung ergibt sich also Hauptsächlich aus der Annahme, dass 4,6 Projekte zugelassen werden, und nicht nur 3, wie bisher. Dabei wird der Wert der 2 eigenen Programme weiterhin mit 0,0 mio angesetzt. Das dürfte sich bei Klinikstart ändern, denn da wären dann ja Auslizenzierungsupfronts im Bereich 20 bis 100 mio möglich, je nach MS und Tantiemegestaltung.
Also: Da hat jemand die 75EURO mit Luft nach oben als fair analysiert.
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