BofA: The Debt Ceiling and the Economy - We think the debt ceiling battle does a lot more harm than good. What can we say with confidence? While it is very hard to quantify the impact of brinkmanship or a short-term violation of the ceiling, a three-month impasse would likely trigger a major recession, with lasting damage. The contraction in spending alone would cause a recession and clearly the market and confidence effects would be large. It is also likely that the impact is non-linear: the longer the impasse lasts the more likely that any eventual budget deal will not fully reverse the damage.
https://business.bofa.com/en-us/content/...-outlook-and-forecast.html
 

„Kriegsraum“ im Büro eingerichtet: JPMorgan-CEO warnt vor einer Katastrophe an den Finanzmärkten
https://www.ariva.de/forum/j-p-morgan-oder-363210?page=3#jumppos88  

This summer may be an interesting one!
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/five-stages-bank-failure-grief  

European investors ramp up private equity allocations
https://www.funds-europe.com/news/...mp-up-private-equity-allocations  

Yellen Doubts US Could Still Pay All of Its Bills by June 15
   Treasury chief says the odds of reaching mid-June ‘quite low’
   Clock ticking on potential US default with talks deadlocked
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...bills-by-june-15-quite-low
US-Schuldenkrise: Weltweite Börsenpanik. Wovor sich die Wall Street fürchtet
https://www.ariva.de/news/...te-brsenpanik-frau-navidi-wovor-10690682  

Game Theory Offers Clue to Market Calm Amid Debt Impasse
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...lm-in-face-of-debt-impasse  

 

"Wir werden Zwangsversteigerungen von Häusern sehen"
Die Zinserhöhungen treffen die Wirtschaft mit Verzögerung, warnt der New Yorker Hedgefondsmanager Alexander Roepers.
https://www.manager-magazin.de/finanzen/...b4b-4ddd-96e8-ea21f813cd21  

> https://www.ariva.de/forum/...er-eurozone-472954?page=312#jumppos7806

Pricing in the damage: Recession is foretold as central banks try to bring inflation back down to policy targets. It’s the opposite of past recessions: Rate cuts are not on the way to help support risk assets, in our view. That’s why the old playbook of simply “buying the dip” doesn’t apply in this regime of sharper trade-offs and greater macro volatility. The new playbook calls for a continuous reassessment of how much of the economic damage being generated by central banks is in the price. The ultimate economic damage depends on how far central banks go to get inflation down. The Federal Reserve signaled a pause after hiking rates in May. But it also reiterated that persistent inflation means no rate cuts this year. We see the European Central Bank going full steam ahead with rate hikes to get inflation to target – regardless of
the damage that entails.
https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/literature/...ategic-question.pdf  

Weißes Haus warnt, dass die Aktienkurse um 45 Prozent einbrechen werden, sollten die USA zahlungsunfähig werden
https://matttopley.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/image-122.png
https://www.businessinsider.de/wirtschaft/...ahlungsunf%c3%a4higkeit/
 

Rent Inflation Re-Accelerates to Red-Hot
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/05/22/...and-actual-rents-tracked-by-cpi/  

The Fed chastised SVB for poor rate-risk monitoring, but most US banks’ disclosures remain focused on earnings alone
https://www.risk.net/our-take/7956693/hear-no-eve-see-no-eve
Western Alliance’s rate-risk gauge breaches internal guidance EVE depletion for 100bp and 200bp hike scenarios highest disclosed by any US regional bank
https://www.risk.net/risk-quantum/7956744/...eaches-internal-guidance  

US SEC Announces Significant Amendments to Form PF

The new reporting requirements are important because the SEC and the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) use data from Form PF to facilitate assessments of US systemic risk presented by the private fund industry. The new information required to be reported on Form PF is intended to enhance the SEC's and FSOC's ability to monitor systemic risk and could potentially impact FSOC's process for designation of systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs).

https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/perspectives-events/...ments-to-form-pf  

JPMorgan-CEO Jamie Dimon warnt vor dramatischem Zinsanstieg: Auf der JPMorgan-Aktionärsversammlung warnte CEO Jamie Dimon, dass jeder auf höhere Zinssätze vorbereitet sein müsse. Die Kreditvergabe einiger US-Banken verknappe sich bereits.
https://www.ariva.de/news/...organ-ceo-jamie-dimon-warnt-vor-10698685
JPMorgan says stocks will fall: JPMorgan is telling its clients to add to cash and gold positions at the expense of equities and bonds.
https://www.ariva.de/forum/j-p-morgan-oder-363210?page=3#jumppos97  

Delinquencies in Subprime Auto-Loan-Backed Securities Have Second-Worst April Ever, Behind only Lockdown April
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/05/24/...wn-april-the-cost-of-free-money/  

Client margin for swaps hit all-time high: Required client margin held by US futures commission merchants (FCMs) for swaps trades hit $158 billion, the most since records began in 2002.
https://www.risk.net/risk-quantum/7956777/...seven-year-high-in-march  

"Be first, be smarter or cheat"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/...4kXwAIb-Vg?format=jpg&name=900x900
Am Wochende ist es dann soweit: Der große Crash - Margin Call
https://www.ndr.de/fernsehen/sendungen/...rgin-Call,sendung80244.html

„Kriegsraum“ im Büro eingerichtet: JPMorgan-CEO warnt vor einer Katastrophe an den Finanzmärkten
https://www.ariva.de/forum/j-p-morgan-oder-363210?page=3#jumppos88
 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/...gnVgAA1Eyk?format=jpg&name=900x900
Peak Margin Breaches: For each clearinghouse in this visualization, the amount shown represents the peak exposure in each clearing service over the previous 12 months
https://www.fia.org/fia/margin-breaches

 

Schweden-Immobilienkrise verschärft sich: Schweden ist von der Krise am europäischen Immobilienmarkt am Härtesten getroffen, vor allem wegen den dort vorherrschenden flexiblen Zinssätzen für langfristige Finanzierungen.
https://finanzmarktwelt.de/schweden-immobilienkrise-eskaliert-271542/
The Face of Sweden’s Property Bust Fights for $13 Billion Empire
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w32K8saYBy4
 

World's Largest Real Estate Market On The Brink Of Collapse: Experts
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/...rket-brink-collapse-experts
 

The Economic Output Composite Index and LEI signaling a US recession
https://www.isabelnet.com/...-economic-output-composite-index-vs-lei/  

> https://www.ariva.de/forum/...er-weltzone-517296?page=135#jumppos3393

=> BCBS-CPMI-IOSCO Review of margining practices

On 24 May 2023, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), the Bank for International Settlements’ Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI) and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) published a joint  report on margin dynamics in centrally cleared commodities markets
https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d550.pdf

P.S.: Grüße an Uniper  

No Commercial Real Estate Bailouts
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/...louts__149265.html  

Bank Bailout Facility Usage Hits New Record High As Money-Market Fund Inflows Soared Again Last Week
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/...market-fund-inflows-soared-again  

Verzockt: Vom Betongold zum Schuldenberg – Immobiliencrash wird wahrscheinlicher
https://de.investing.com/news/economy/...ird-wahrscheinlicher-2409510